Updated 3 November 2025
Malawi’s Stock Exchange has been soaring to high valuations, according to a report by stockbroker Cedar Capital which finds that at 30 September the MSE had an average price earnings (P/E) ratio of 42.6x, a price book (P/B) ratio of 14.1x and a dividend yield of 1.2%. Veteran stockbroker and Cedar Capital CEO Armstrong Kamphoni says the MSE’s weighted average P/E ratio is higher than it was in September 2022, 2023 and 2024.
By 30 September, the main Malawi All Share Index (MASI) had scored another runaway quarter and was up 75.6% to both local and US$ based investors.
This brings the return for the year to 30 September 2025 to 237.7% to both sets of investors – global investors in Malawi’s leading stock could have tripled their money – and the index has gone on rising since then. By market close on 30 October, the index was at 606,966.88, according to the very useful African Financials website MASI index listing but it started to slip back and closed 31 October at 602,600.89, according to African Markets website.
African markets soaring
Malawi is the leader among high-performing African markets to 31 October, according to the scorecard kept by the excellent African Markets website. Returns to investors in local currency were a gain of 250% and to USD investors were 249%.
US dollar investors who found investments that mirrored the performance of Ghana’s Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSE CI) in the year to 31 October would have more than doubled their money with a gain of 129% (only 71% for local investors). The Lusaka Stock Exchange All Share Index shows a gain of 107% to 31 October (only 65% for local investors).
Strong performance by many African stock exchange indices has been matched by African currencies that stabilized and some strengthened against the US dollar (the USD has slipped back against other global currencies).
Why is Malawi climbing?
The third quarter report released on 9 October by the Malawi Stock Exchange https://mse.co.mw/market/reports shows that the highflying index is driven by strong turnover with MWK 113.3 billion ($65.4 million) value of shares traded in the third quarter, up from $16.8m value of shares traded in the third quarter of 2024. The volume of shares traded was 191.2m shares in 14,056 trades, compared to 192.6m shares in 4,378 trades in the same period in 2024.
The top 5 share price gains in Malawi in the third quarter to 30 September were
- The National Investment Trust Limited (NITL) up 328%, investing in a portfolio of listed and unlisted securities, bonds, property and money market instruments.
- Standard Bank Malawi up 175%
- Financial services group NICO up 101%, established as a short-term insurer in 1971 and now grown into general and life insurance, banking, asset management, pension administration, corporate finance and operations in Malawi and Zambia.
- FDH Bank (FDHB) up 82% combining banking, discount house, investment management and advisory
- National Bank of Malawi (NBM) up 76%.
Armstrong Kamphoni of Cedar Capital told ACMN: “The main driver of the market is local retail investors who are disillusioned by persistently high inflation and weak macro-economic environment – characterized by acute shortage of foreign currency – artificial pricing of forex. Although the retail sector is not the main contributor to traded value, it drives the index as investors look for a home for their funds which they presume to be safe for capital preservation.
“Traded values are driven by pension fund managers who are having to shift around stocks from one fund to the other in order to try and rebalance the portfolios which are brought into disarray by the significant increases in specific stocks. Foreign investors are all but gone as they can hardly take their money out due to shortage of forex.”
Cedar Capital’s research report says the economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2025, inflation averaged 29% a year in the last 6 months and the Monetary Policy Committee maintained the policy interest rate at 26%, unchanged from the second half of 2024. The IMF has terminated Malawi’s $175m extended credit facility due to lack of progress. The black market rate for the MWK was reported at over MWK4,500 = $1 compared to MWK 1,734 = $1 on the official market, a rate that has not changed this year.
The stockbroker report analyses business, lending, assets and margins at the listed banks, and weighs up the restructuring of Telekom Networks Malawi (TNM) which provides mobile, data and mobile money, and compares to Airtel Malawi. Others covered include NICO and how Sunbird Tourism is weathering the effects of donor defunding on the conferencing and hospitality sectors.
A local news report on Nation Online last week quoted Stockbrokers Malawi (website currently offline) equity analyst Kondwani Makwakwa who said that although share price levels may not fully represent the actual value of some counters, this is largely a reflection of the nature of the local bourse. He said MSE is relatively small, with several counters rarely trading due to limited free float and the tendency of many investors to hold their shares for the long-term.
He added: “As long as the number of listed companies remains narrow, such price movements will persist and, in many respects, can be considered normal given the structural characteristics of the market.” This exposes investors to the risk of price volatility which may not reflect the business realities faced by the companies, making it harder to make well-informed investment decisions, he explained.
“The real solution lies in increasing the number of listed companies as is the case in more vibrant exchanges. While the MSE has seen spectacular share price gains this year, these surges may not reflect genuine business growth or wealth creation, but rather the structural limitations of the market.”
Presidential election brought changes
Presidential elections on 16 September saw the return of 85-year-old Peter Mutharika in a big comeback, after a convincing win over the incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera. Mutharika was president from 2014-2020, when he lost by a large margin to Chakwera, according to the BBC news reports.
Chakwera is credited for reintroducing train services and major road construction, but inflation soared on his watch. Voters may be expecting Mutharika to repeat his inflation-busting success from his previous term and to re-engage with the IMF, stabilize the MWK (kwacha) and boost local industries and trade.
Armstrong Kamphoni comments: “The return of President Mutharika has brought hope for the economy as during his first term he presided over a fairly stable economy, low inflation levels, stable currency and good relations with the international partners like the IMF. He has started on a good note with his messaging: a leaner cabinet, talking tough on corruption and putting his cabinet members to task on performance. He has repeatedly warned that he will not shield anyone if they are incompetent or corrupt.”
Where next for Malawi share prices?
Stockbroker CEO Kamphoni advises investors to proceed with caution: “In an inflationary environment, the rally in stocks might be sustained as investors do not have much alternative home for their money. Having said that, we think as sanity returns to the economy, there will be a period of correction with some stocks retreating. One such factor would be stabilization of currency and its availability to the business community. This would mean the local currency liquidity reduces and demand for stocks might fall. There are, in our opinion, very few stocks with value based on forward earnings.”
Share prices climbing sky-high. Photo: Mount Mulanje and tea plantations, Depositphotos credit Madelein Wolf .