Hasnain Malik, Global Head of Equities Research at the specialist frontier markets investment bank Exotix Capital, comments:

“Kenyatta’s provisional win will soothe those investors who feared a leftist shift in economic policy. But the most important issues are ahead of us: Does Odinga concede peacefully? His initial rhetoric suggests there is a risk he does not. The key point then is whether Odinga looks to the courts for review, as in the 2013 scenario, mobilizes protesters, which would bring risks of a 2008 type scenario, or concedes defeat.

“Next, from a financial markets perspective, focus will shift to whether Kenyatta’s coalition has established a sufficient majority in Parliament and among the governors to repeal the interest rate cap law.

“Odinga’s own coalition allies may view his third loss at the polls as a chance to supercede him for the next election.”